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Forecasting

Saying what will happen and how sure you are: scenarios, predictions that fail, and the events nobody priced in.

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  1. 2026

  2. noteA self-fulfilling prophecy

    Karen Hao says scaling laws are like Moore's Law: not a law of nature but a self-fulfilling prophecy. She is half right, and the half matters.

    Neural networksSemiconductorsForecastingHistory of technologyTechnology races

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